How Do Solar Storms and Space Weather Affect Earth?
Magnetospheres: The Earth and Sun
both have magnetic fields known as magnetospheres. The Sun's
magnetosphere is known as the heliosphere and has been key to the
development and sustainability of life on Earth as it protects the
nearby planets from a variety of intragalactic phenomenon that could
potentially devastate life. Similarly, the Earth's magnetosphere
somewhat shields it from normal emissions from the Sun: Auroras are
frequently the result of a "solar wind" or ejected particles buffeting
the earth and interacting with our magnetosphere. Occasionally, the
Sun's magnetic field developes distortions or "tangles," which can
result in sunspots, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (NASA,
2010)
An artist's rendition of solar emissions hitting the Earth's magnetosphere. Above and right Images by NASA.
Sunspots are slightly cooler regions of the sun's corona, or
outer layer, which can sometimes be observed from the Earth with a
solar telescope or, at times, the naked eye.
Solar flares are associated with sunspots, and are sudden
bursts of radiation that occur with some regularity on the Sun as a
result of naturally occurring magnetic fluctuations on the Sun. They
include radiation all across the electromagnetic spectrum, from visible
light to gamma rays. The patterns of sunspots and solar flares have been
directly recorded since around 1749, which has shown that periods of
heightened solar activity occur on a fairly regular basis roughly every
11 years. This is frequently referred to as the solar cycle.
Data from the Solar Influences Data Analysis
Center, World Data Center for the Sunspot Index, at the Royal
Observatory of Belgium compiled by Hoyt & Schatten and NOAA. Image
created by Robert A. Rohde / Global Warming Art
 How do we gather this information? A core of ice drilled from the arctic was analyzed. The chart on the left shows the levels of protons with energies high enough to
indicate that they came from solar events. Black values
are estimated from levels of nitrates that form during solar events,
red values are from directly observed cosmic rays. While other
environmental factors can cause these spikes in nitrates, it's
possible to cross-reference the events with data collected from lunar
rocks, which aren't affected by weather (Straum, nd).
From the report made for the Department of Homeland Security by MITRE corporation, JASON department: Impacts of Severe Space Weather on the Electric Grid. |
The Current Cycle:
Alvestad, Jan. http://www.solen.info/solar/
Coronal mass ejections (CME) often
follow solar flares and increase in frequency and magnitude during the
active parts of the solar cycle. The Sun ejects a blast of
plasma mostly composed of electrons, protons, and highly
excited gas at hundreds to thousands of miles per second.
These ejections can reach the Earth as fast as eighteen hours, though
most take closer to 2-3 days. Many of them miss the Earth completely,
but sometimes they collide and interact with our own magnetosphere and
atmosphere, causing auroras (bright lights in the sky) and also...
Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC): You can create this phenomenon
on a much smaller scale simply by sliding a bar magnet in
and out of a coil of wire--the coil will become conductive as the
magnetic field fluctuates and generate a small current, the same way crank generators work. Similarly, when
the intensely charged particles in a CME hit the
charged magnetosphere and ionosphere, fluctuations in the magnetosphere
are produced, which can generate electricity in similar structures, in
this case power lines and pipelines rather than a small piece of wire.
The first significant observation of this phenomenon was in 1859 during a
particularly intense storm known as the "Carrington Event" which
produced enough current in unpowered wires to run (and damage) telegraph
machines and other primitive electrical instruments. (NASA Science
News, 2011) (Rohde 2006).
So, why does any of this matter on a practical level? It is difficult to gauge the full extent
of the impact a severe solar event could have on modern civilization due
to the intricate interrelations of every aspect of modern global
economics and infrastructure. As illustrated below, the impacts on the
electric power grid alone would have a variety of wide-ranging,
impossible to forecast consequences.
The Department of Homeland Security, Office of Risk Management and Analysis Geomagnetic Storms: Evaluation of Risks and Risk Assessments has the following concise summary of the potential infrastructure impact of a severe geomagnetic storm.
Fortunately, cheap and effective failsafes have been engineered that
could easily mitigate the associated risks of a severe solar storm,
though simple technological failsafes have yet to be implemented in most
of the world's developed countries. Unfortunately, despite their proven
damaging effects on critical parts of electrical power grid, which are
both costly and a threat to the security of our information and
communications technology networks, few preparations have been made in
most developed countries, including the United States of America, to
mitigate potential infrastructure collapse relative to other natural
disasters such as earthquakes, floods, wildfires, etc. (Department of
Homeland Security, 2012a, 2012b). The NRC is currently considering
amending its regulations to consider the possibility of damage to the
electrical infrastructure that could potentially cause nuclear disasters
as a result of nuclear power station cooling failure. (Borchardt, 2012;
Johnson, 2012). The North American Electric Reliability Corporation
outlined a variety of scenarios and proposals for action should a
"High-Impact, Low Frequency Event" such as powerful geomagnetic storms,
the detonation of a nuclear weapon at high altitude, or the use of a
large-scale EMP weapon take place (NERC, 2010). The National
Infrastructure Advisory Council also released a report and
recommendations focusing on bolstering the resilience of the electrical
infrastructure (NIAC, 2010)
“Severe geomagnetic storms can disrupt
the operation of electric power transmission systems and critical
infrastructures relying on space-based assets. A geomagnetic storm that
degrades the electric power grid would affect not only the energy sector
but the transportation, communications, banking, and finance sectors,
as well as government services and emergency response capabilities…
Extra-high-voltage transformers and transmission lines may be
particularly vulnerable to geomagnetically induced currents caused by
the disturbance of Earth’s geomagnetic field. The simultaneous loss of
large numbers of these assets could cause a voltage collapse and lead to
cascading power outages, resulting in significant economic costs to the
Nation. An extreme geomagnetic storm is a low-probability,
high-consequence event that could pose a systemic risk to the Nation”
(Department of Homeland Security 2011, 1).
“Electrical power transmission networks
face greater vulnerability to geomagnetic storms as they span longer
distances to supply demand centers due to the use of high-voltage
transmission lines. This is because the longer distances of networks
make them better “antennas” to pick up the electrical currents induced
by the geomagnetic storms. Geomagnetically induced currents can also
overload electrical power grids, causing significant voltage regulation
problems and, potentially, widespread power outages. Moreover,
geomagnetically induced currents can cause intense internal heating in
extra-high-voltage transformers, putting them at risk of failure or even
permanent damage. Recent estimates state that 300 large
extra-high-voltage transformers in the United States would be vulnerable
to geomagnetically induced currents… Once fuel for backup power runs
out, resupply of fuel (e.g., through gasoline pumps) is reliant on
electricity. A power blackout lasting longer than 72 hours could create
longer-term implications for interdependent infrastructures” (Department
of Homeland Security 2011, 3).
The “Oak Ridge National Laboratory study
documented past problems encountered in various types of equipment. The
general conclusions are that the vulnerability of U.S. electric grid
connections likely will rise due to the trends in industry and
increasing use of extra-high-voltage equipment that is essential in
modern electric power transmission” (Department of Homeland Security
2011, 7).
Transformers and Power Lines
While power lines have built-in arrestors
to minimize the damage of sudden high voltage surges (such as those
caused by lightning), the infrastructure is poorly designed to
withstand the kind of current produced over large distances by GIC,
which can damage devices in the power grid called "large power transformers" that transmit and distribute electricity.
Image by National Academy of Sciences. A more detailed state by state map can be found at NASA.
These transformers are costly to produce
and, due to a variety of resource harvesting, transportation, and
manufacturing factors, can only be produced in limited quantities. The
United States consumes roughly 20% of the global market of large power
transformers but produces less than 15% of that demand domestically
between six factories. Due to the enormous variety of technical
specifications for these large power transformers, limited supplies of
copper and electrical steel, and bureaucracy surrounding their
procurement, lead times to replacement can stretch to 20 months and
beyond. Further, there are currently only 30 train cars capable of
transporting large power transformers. These transformers fail over time
and become less reliable as they age; in 2012, 70% of installed large
power transformers were over 25 years old and their average life
expectency is 40 years. It is estimated that there are currently around
2,000 "Extra High Voltage" (over 345 kilovolts) large power transformers
installed in the United States. The total number of large power
transformers is unknown, but likely in the tens of thousands, and at
least 100 new ones have been installed every year since 2000 (see
graphic below). Efforts are underway by the NERC to catalog the spares,
but an industry figure shows that for every transformer design, 1.3
transformers are made, meaning severely limited interchangeability and
spare reserves (Department of Energy, 2012). Even without factoring the
impact of an economy fractured by catastrophe, optimal replacement time
in the event of a severe solar event similar to the Carrington Event is
estimated at 4 to 10 years (National Research Council for the National
Academies, 2011; Kappenman, 2010).
(above: Department of Energy, 2012)
The Department of Homeland Security, Department of Energy, and several
parties in the private industry have started a "Recover Transformer
(RecX)" program to attempt to address this issue by creating smaller and
easier to transport, faster to produce, and generally easier to replace
in the event of a catastrophic failure (Department of Homeland
Security, 2012a). The prototype was produced by ABB and was installed in
an emergency drill during April of 2012, a process which took roughly a
week (a vast improvement on typical transportation and installation
times). The test model can replace roughly 500 of the 2,000 EHV LPTs
installed and covers 90% of the transformers in its voltage class (the
largest voltage class of EHV transformers) (Wald, 2013; Department of
Energy, 2012).
(Armed Forces Communication and Electronics Association Cyber Committee, 2013)
According to Craig L. Steigemeier, Business Development & Technology Director, ABB:
"The RecX units already built
could be redeployed in the event of an emergency. Storage and deployed
locations are not public information. And since a 345/138kV auto with a
somewhat high impedance doesn't cover everthing in terms of large
auto's on the grid, we have completed other designs at other ratings.
We are also exploring variants based on the design for other
applications."
Satellites
It is costly to build protection against
solar radiation damage into a satellite, and it is currently impossible
to build a satellite that is fully immune to the impact of solar weather
(Linton, 2012). In November 2003, solar eruptions caused an estimated
$4 billion to $10 billion in damage, largely due to the destruction and
disruption of satellites. This also forced the rerouting of numerous
flights, costing $10,000 to $100,000 each and disruption of commerce by
incapacitating navigational satellites (National Research Council for
the National Academies, 2011). It is difficult for obvious
reasons to put an exact dollar cost on the disruption of daily life and
business caused by cell phone disruption, personal GPS device
malfunction, and all the other mundane goods and services dependent upon
satellites.
Transportation Systems
The direct impact of GIC or even a fairly
strong EMP on most automobiles is negligible: the circuits are too
small to induct current and the semiconductors are too rugged to be
permanently damaged (Foster, 2004). Nonetheless, cars cannot run without
gasoline and gasoline cannot be pumped without electricity.
Oil and Gas Pipelines
Damage has been observed taking place on large pipelines as a result of current induced between the pipe itself and the ground (pipe-to-soil voltage). (Hejda, P. and Bochni ́ıˇcek, J., 2005)
Personal Technology
Cell phones and GPS devices require satellites to function.
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Content by Sett Balise, 2014. No offsite links belong to me. Corrections? e-mail me! Find this useful? Buy some art !
AUTHOR DOES NOT WORK FOR ANY FEDERAL OR STATE AGENCY, ABB, OR ANY MANUFACTURER OR POWER SUPPLIER. THIS IS A PURELY EDUCATIONAL WORK.
